Economic growth predicted to have slowed in third quarter

UK economic growth is expected to have slowed further over the third quarter of 2025 ahead of the key autumn Budget, according to economists.

Experts have predicted that the Office for National Statistics will report 0.2% growth over the three months to September in their latest update on Thursday morning.

It will represent a slowdown after 0.3% in the previous quarter, continuing a notable drop-off after a 0.7% rise in the first three months of the year.

The ONS GDP (gross domestic product) figures will be the latest influential set to economic data in the run-up to the Budget on November 26.

Rachel Reeves and the Government have been hopeful that stronger economic growth can help increase tax revenues and support Government spending plans.

Slow growth or a stagnant economy over the third quarter would present a setback for the Chancellor.

Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, has said positive tempo in the economy earlier this year has “tempered” in the second half.

He added: “Anticipated weakness in growth is a result of weaker industrial production activity, and primarily weaker oil and manufacturing output.

“We expect the construction sector to remain flat on the month, with services activity just about inching higher to end Q3.”

Production and manufacturing came under pressure late in the quarter, according to sector PMI data, which flagged an impact from the factory shutdown at Jaguar Land Rover following a major cyber attack.

Last week, the Bank of England said the halt to production could have knocked 0.1 percentage points off monthly growth in September.

Mr Raja is also among a raft of economists to have forecast that the economy flatlined in September, stalling after 0.1% growth in August.

Pantheon Macroeconomics have meanwhile forecast that growth stayed at 0.1% in September.

Experts at the organisation indicated that the economy would benefit from retail growth, but would have seen weaker output for accommodation and food services output.

Concerns over a slowdown growth have led to predictions from economists that the Bank of England will cut interest rates next month, to 3.75%, and could cut rates deeper than previously expected.

Policymakers will also look at the latest inflation data, which will be released next week, when they assess the next vote on interest rates.