England faces widespread drought in 2026 without wet winter – Environment Agency

England will experience widespread drought next year without a wet winter, the Environment Agency has warned.

Yorkshire and the Midlands remain in drought after 2025’s dry spring and summer and a run of heatwaves, while swathes of the country are still in “exceptionally dry conditions” and the North West is currently recovering.

Drought is declared over only when water levels are fully replenished and England has seen below average rainfall for eight out of 10 months so far this year, with only January and September registering above average rain.

The country has received only 83% of the average rainfall for January to October, and suffered the driest spring for 132 years and the hottest summer on record.

Despite recent rainfall, the situation remains “precarious”, the Environment Agency said.

And if the winter is drier than normal, much or all of the country will be in drought by next spring, with the risk of hosepipe bans, effects on crops and wildlife, and wildfires as the summer progresses.

The dry conditions also raise the risk of flash flooding when rain does come as dry soils struggle to soak up heavy downpours and the water simply runs off to cause flood waters.

The warning comes as the Met Office forecasts heavy rain into Saturday, but says that there is a higher than usual likelihood of dry conditions over the three months from November to January, which could cause drought conditions to worsen.

Environment Agency director of water Helen Wakeham said: “There will be a drought next year, unless we get sustained rainfall through the winter.

“The severity of that drought will depend both on the weather and the actions we take over winter following this very dry year.

“The public have been brilliant in using a little less water this summer and following the restrictions in some parts of the country.

“I would urge people to continue to be as efficient as possible with their water use this winter – even if it is raining outside. Our wildlife, our rivers and our public water supplies depend on it.”

The Environment Agency is calling on water companies to continue to engage with customers to help them use less water and continue efforts to cut leakage.

Farmers should consider adjusting cropping patterns to include more drought-tolerant crops or varieties that need less irrigation, refilling reservoirs as soon as possible and working with neighbours to share water and water rights, it said.

The agency has outlined three scenarios for winter rainfall – when water resources recharge ahead of the summer months – and what they would mean for the public, farmers and the environment.

If England receives an average amount of rainfall over the winter, all areas of the country will be in a normal or recovering condition by March 2026, with the exception of parts of Cambridgeshire and Bedfordshire which will still be in prolonged dry conditions.

If that happens, public water supplies will have fully recovered, the canal network would be back to full strength, but there could be some lingering impacts on nature including a poor breeding season for amphibians.

But if the country receives only 80% of the average rainfall expected over the winter, all areas will be in drought or prolonged dry weather conditions by March 2026 with the exception Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire, and Cumbria and Lancashire.

And in an even drier scenario where England receives just 60% of the average rainfall for the winter, all parts of the country would be in drought by spring 2026, with hosepipe bans, reduced water for irrigating crops, impacts on sports facilities and the potential for “permanent” environmental damage.

Will Lang, chief meteorologist at the Met Office, said: “While it’s not possible to definitively forecast weather for the next three months, the chances of a dry period are higher than normal.

“A more average three-month period for rainfall is still the most likely scenario.

“It’s important to note that rainfall patterns in England can be variable, so while some may see more rainfall, others will see less, possibly giving limited relief from long-standing dry conditions.”

Water minister Emma Hardy said the Government would continue to work with the National Drought Group and water companies to maintain supplies for communities across the country.

“Climate change means we will face more frequent, severe droughts and flooding in the years ahead.

“That’s why this government is taking decisive action to secure our long-term water resilience, which includes building nine new reservoirs and investing in new pipes to reduce leakage,” she said.