Retail sales fall unexpectedly in October amid Budget hit to consumer confidence

Retail sales fell unexpectedly last month for the first time since May in the latest sign of consumer caution ahead of the Budget.

Official figures showed retail sales by volume fell 1.1% during October, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.7% in September.

Most economists had forecast for retail sales to remain unchanged month-on-month in October.

In the three months to October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said retail sales lifted 1.1% compared with the previous three months as gains in August and September offset last month’s decline.

The figures follow a raft of retailers reporting that shopper spending has pulled back due to uncertainty over the upcoming Budget, including high street stalwart Marks & Spencer.

And figures out separately from GfK on Friday showed consumer confidence has fallen across all measures this month as it said the public is “bracing for difficult news” in next week’s Budget.

The ONS said that retailers were also seeing some spending held back in October ahead of this month’s Black Friday promotions.

ONS chief economist Grant Fitzner said: “Supermarkets, clothing stores and online retailers all saw slower sales, with feedback from some retailers that consumers were waiting for November’s Black Friday deals.”

Supermarket sales dropped in October for the second month in a row, according to the ONS.

Monthly online sales also fell for the first time since January, down 1.7%, with retailers noting spending was being held back ahead of Black Friday, the ONS said.

Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “The increasingly chaotic run-up to the Budget has begun to weigh on consumer spending, judging by confidence nudging down in November and weakening retail sales growth lately.”

But he said spending should bounce back towards the end of the year, with a possible Bank of England interest rate cut spurring on festive shoppers.

Mr Wood said: “We expect retail sales volumes growth to remain subdued in November as pre-Budget speculation reaches a fever pitch and consumers factor in the political and Budget chaos that consumed Westminster last week.

“We still think consumers should return to the high street when the Budget is passed and there is a little more clarity over fiscal policy.”