Danger to life warning in Wales as areas may see nearly a month of rain in a day

An amber warning signalling possible “danger to life” in parts of Wales has been extended, with nearly a month’s worth of rain forecast to fall in 24 hours.

It runs from midnight to 11.59pm on Monday and says “fast flowing or deep floodwater is possible, which could cause a danger to life” in the majority of South Wales.

Yellow rain warnings have also been issued in parts of England and Wales from the early hours of Monday to 3am on Tuesday, as well as for most of Monday in south-west Scotland.

Forecasters predict 120mm of rain could fall in the highest ground of Wales’ amber warning zone while 20mm to 40mm is expected widely and up to 80mm is likely in hilly parts.

Records show the quantity of rain forecast on Monday has previously triggered landslides in Wales, a British Geological Survey spokesperson said.

Monday could be “a significant event for many” and its impact will likely be greater because the ground is already saturated, the Met Office said.

Wales has so far seen around 240mm of rain this month when its November average is 162mm, according to one of its meteorologists.

Meanwhile, England and Wales combined have had 143% of the norm, he added.

Senior operational Met Office meteorologist Marco Petagna said: “All areas have seen above normal rainfall, Scotland and Northern Ireland are less of an issue of tomorrow, away from south-west of Scotland.

“It’s mostly parts of England and Wales – many areas have seen already well-above normal rainfall and another several inches to come.

“No warnings are expected to be issued today for beyond tomorrow – it’s partly so we don’t distract from what could be a significant event for many tomorrow and the weather generally isn’t as impactful at this stage for Tuesday and Wednesday, it’s brighter, more showery.”

The amber rain warning says “heavy rain is likely to bring some disruption and probable flooding on Monday”.

“In addition to the potential for flooding impacts, this increases the chance of landslides on both natural and infrastructure slopes.

“Strong south to south-westerly winds will also accompany the heavy rain, with gales possible around coasts and over high ground.”

Homes and businesses could be flooded, and there may also be transport cancellations and power cuts.

Some communities could be cut off by flooded roads, officials said.

A spokesperson for the British Geological Survey said: “Records indicate that rainfall amounts similar to those forecast for Monday have previously triggered landslides in Wales.

“Both natural and infrastructure slopes could be affected within the warning areas, with rainfall falling on slopes that are likely to already be saturated.”

Yellow rain warnings are in place from midnight on Monday to 3am on Tuesday in parts of south-west and north-west England, as well as central and northern parts of Wales.

Another yellow warning has been added for south-west Scotland from midnight to 9pm on Monday.

They flag a “slight chance” of delays or cancellations to transport if flooding occurs, as well as communities being cut off.

There is also a small chance homes and businesses could be flooded.

Richard Preece, Natural Resources Wales’ (NRW) duty tactical manager, said: “We are asking people to be alert for potential flooding, with heavy rain predicted overnight on Sunday into Monday morning, especially in parts of South Wales.

“With some rivers already swollen and the ground saturated, we expect to see a number of flood alerts and warnings issued.

“We’re urging people to be vigilant and to make preparations for potential flooding now.

“We also want to remind people to keep away from swollen riverbanks and not to drive or walk through flood waters as you don’t know what lies beneath.”

The Environment Agency has posted one alert that says flooding is expected and 23 warning that it is possible.