Reform opens clear lead over Labour for second place in Holyrood vote – poll

Reform UK has opened up a clear lead over Scottish Labour for second place ahead of May’s Holyrood election, a new poll suggests.

Nigel Farage’s party – led north of the border by former Tory peer Malcolm Offord – has a five-point lead over Labour in the YouGov poll published on Thursday.

The polling body spoke to 1,113 people in Scotland between January 8 and 14.

Reform boasted 20% support in both the constituency and regional vote, compared to 15% for Labour.

The SNP remained well in front of the pack in the poll, on 34% and 29% respectively.

But that represents a substantial drop from the 48% and 40% support it enjoyed in the last Holyrood election in 2021.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives sunk to 10% support in constituencies and 11% in the regional list, according to Thursday’s poll.

The Scottish Greens jumped to 12% on the list – overtaking the Tories into fourth place – and 9% in constituencies.

Liberal Democrat support sat at 9% and 10% respectively.

The pollster also looked at movements between parties since the 2024 general election, finding 21% of respondents who backed Labour have become undecided, with 14% saying they will back Reform UK and 13% now supporting the SNP.

The Tories have retained 48% of their support, according to the poll, with 27% going to Reform UK and 17% into the undecided column.

Mr Offord said the poll findings “reflect the reality we are hearing on the doorsteps”.

He added: “Anas Sarwar is in the last-chance saloon. His desperate attempts to escape Scottish Labour’s toxic brand and make this a presidential election between him and (John) Swinney have backfired spectacularly.

“The SNP are down 14 points on the 2021 election, recording their lowest opinion poll share since John Swinney’s disastrous first leadership of the party in 2003.

“It is now a clear two-horse race between a clapped-out SNP Government and new direction for Scotland with Reform.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said: “The SNP is letting Scotland down – from the crisis in our NHS, to the chaos in our schools, to the pressure on our justice system.

“Scotland deserves so much better than a third decade of SNP neglect, but only Scottish Labour can deliver the change in government our country needs.

“Reform are nothing but Tories in disguise – they have no answers to the challenges Scotland faces and no chance of beating the SNP.

“Scottish Labour will continue to work tirelessly to earn voters’ trust and demonstrate that we have the new ideas and new leadership needed to turn the page on SNP failure.”

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “The poll shows that momentum is with the SNP as the only party which offers trusted leadership and puts their priorities first while Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is distracted by a bitter civil war.

“Under John Swinney’s leadership our NHS has started to turn a corner and Scots continue to receive the best cost of living support in the UK – that’s what the relentless focus of John Swinney on the priorities of the people of Scotland brings.

“Anas Sarwar bent over backwards to defend every disastrous decision Keir Starmer made – what you see with the London boss is exactly what you get with the branch manager.”

A Scottish Tory spokesman said: “Scotland desperately needs rid of this failing, independence-obsessed SNP government – and voting Scottish Conservatives is crucial to doing that.

“We are the only party committed to lowering the bills of over-taxed Scots by reining in the Nationalists’ out-of-control welfare spending.

“While Reform refuse to rule out another independence referendum and are relaxed about another five years of SNP rule, the Scottish Conservatives will always stand up to their relentless push to break up the UK.”