‘Too soon to know’ if Middle East war will affect small boat arrivals – experts

It is “too soon to know” if the Iran conflict will affect the number of people crossing the English Channel in small boats, Oxford University experts have said.

In recent years, Iran has been the most common country of origin for asylum applicants, and Iranians have made up the largest group of small boat arrivals in the UK.

But Dr Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said it “remains unclear” how much the latest unrest will affect asylum trends.

The Middle East war spiralled this week, with a series of US airstrikes on Iran, while Tehran launched strikes against Israel and the oil and natural gas production facilities of Gulf states.

US President Donald Trump has suggested the war will escalate further, telling CNN that a “big” wave of airstrikes on Iran is yet to come.

Dr Sumption told the Press Association: “It’s too soon to know how the conflict in Iran will affect the number of people fleeing.

“If there is another violent crackdown, this could push more people to leave.

“If there is a change in regime, some people who feared the previous government might feel safer, but instability and conflicts could emerge as new groups wrestle for power.

“This makes the situation for refugees unpredictable.”

Most Iranians leaving the country will not travel as far as the UK, but it is still a major destination, she said.

At the time of the census in 2021/22, there were around 114,000 Iranian-born people living in the UK, figures show.

Iran was the third most common country of nationality among asylum seekers in 2024, after Pakistan and Afghanistan, according to the Migration Observatory.

Around two-thirds of all initial decisions on the 8,100 Iranian asylum applications in 2024 were positive, meaning that Iranians had a higher grant rate than many other top nationalities.

Around 26,000 Iranians arrived in the UK by small boat by 2024, 17% of all arrivals.

Dr Sumption added: “Iran is one of the largest countries of origin for asylum seekers and small boat arrivals in the UK.

“So it would not be surprising if unrest in Iran affected UK asylum trends, although how and how much remains unclear.”

On Tuesday, migrants were pictured in Gravelines, France, attempting to board several small boats.

Earlier this week, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said people granted asylum in the UK will have their refugee status reviewed every 30 months in an effort to make the UK less attractive for illegal immigrants.

Refugees whose countries are deemed safe will be expected to return home.

More than 2,200 migrants have arrived after crossing the Channel so far this year.