Wet February dampens retail sales amid Middle East conflict threat to confidence

February’s wet weather dampened retail sales across the UK amid warnings that the Middle East conflict is threatening to halt any longer-term recovery in consumer confidence.

Total UK retail sales increased by just 1.1% year on year, against already sluggish growth last February and well below the 12-month average of 2.3%, according to British Retail Consortium (BRC) and KPMG figures.

Food sales were flat in real terms at 2.9% – below the 12-month average growth of 3.8% – as shoppers tightened their belts.

Non-food sales fell by 0.4% overall – rising in stores by 0.2% but declining by 1.3% online as households reined in spending after Christmas and January’s rebound.

However, Valentine’s Day did provide a small bright spot, with jewellery, watches and perfume performing better as consumers still treated loved ones.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “February’s grey, wet weather hit retail sales hard.

“While retailers look to Spring and better weather to lift spirits and revive sales, conflict in the Middle East threatens knocking any recovery off course.

“Prolonged low consumer confidence adds strain on retailers already facing mounting cost pressures, higher taxes and a growing regulatory burden.”

Sarah Bradbury, the chief executive of analysts IGD, said: “As March begins, the outlook is deteriorating. The OBR’s latest forecast downgraded near-term growth, whilst the conflict in the Middle East is strengthening concerns over fuel costs, which could impact food price inflation, if the situation continues.”

In separate figures from Barclays, card spending grew just 1% in February as inflation and travel concerns dampened confidence.

Some 82% of consumers are concerned about the impact of tensions in the Middle East on fuel costs, energy bills (81%) and inflation (78%), as well as on food prices (76%), a poll for the bank early this month found.

However, entertainment spending increased by 9.9% in February – an 11-month high – with transactions peaking when tickets to Harry Styles’s Together, Together Tour went on sale on January 30.

Jack Meaning, chief UK economist at Barclays, said: “This timely insight into consumers’ reaction to the evolving situation in the Middle East highlights perfectly the economic risks for the UK if the conflict doesn’t find a way to de-escalate in short order.

“The start of 2026 had brought positive signs of growth and improving consumer sentiment. A new, prolonged bout of uncertainty risks snuffing that out before it has had a chance to really get going.”