Gas supplies ‘can meet British demand over summer’ despite Iran war disruption

Britain is expected to have sufficient gas supply to meet demand from households and businesses this summer despite prices surging amid the conflict in the Middle East, according to the country’s gas system operator.

National Gas said gas stocks in Great Britain are set to be sufficient enough to allow for some British gas to exported to mainland Europe.

The body, which runs Britain’s National Transmission System (NTS), unveiled its outlook for summer 2026 amid a volatile backdrop for global energy markets.

The price of oil and gas has jumped sharply since the start of the conflict between US-Israeli and Iranian forces in late February.

UK natural gas futures had risen to around 120.7 pence per therm on Monday, up from around 78 pence per therm before the conflict began.

A number of liquified natural gas (LNG) production facilities in Qatar and other parts of the Middle East have been targeted by missiles, while exports from the region have also been impacted by heavy disruption to the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor.

National Gas stressed that British demand for gas will be primarily met by supplies extracted from the UK Continental Shelf and imports from Norway.

Around 86% of total gas supply (25.3 bcm) is expected to come from these sources.

National Gas said it expects this volume will be enough to exceed forecast demand from Great Britain and gas exported to Ireland.

Nevertheless, it added that around 5% of total supply will also come from flexible gas storage and around 9% of supply will come from LNG imports.

Forecasts were prepared ahead of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East but National Gas said it has reviewed its analysis since and concluded that the market is expected to still have sufficient capacity and capability to meet forecasts.

Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of energy systems and resilience at National Gas, said: “While the situation in the Middle East has understandably raised questions about Britain’s gas supplies, our forecasts indicate the market has the capacity to deliver sufficient supply to meet demand this summer.

“The diversity of supply sources, including domestic production, Norway, LNG and storage, provides resilience and flexibility as supply flows and demand patterns change.”

Demand for gas is forecast to be similar to summer 2025, according to the projections.

National Gas expects a roughly 6% reduction in gas demand used for electricity generation but said this will be largely offset by an expected 2% rise in non-daily metered demand from residential and commercial consumers.

Ian Radley, chief commercial officer at National Gas, said: “Gas continues to play a critical role in supporting the electricity system, even during the summer months.

“As renewable output fluctuates, gas‑fired power stations are increasingly required to respond quickly, and the network must be able to support that safely and reliably.

“It is important that ongoing, co-ordinated action between Government, industry and regulators continues to address future risks arising from declining domestic production and an increasing reliance on imports.”