Unionist parties could take majority in tight Holyrood poll, survey suggests

Unionist parties could hold the majority in Holyrood after May 7, a poll has suggested, but more than half of constituencies are considered marginal.

The survey, carried out for More in Common and seen exclusively by the Press Association, found the SNP will continue to be the largest party, but John Swinney’s party and the Greens – the other independence-supporting party – would fall one seat short of a majority.

The major multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) poll spoke to more than 5,000 Scots between February 4 and April 10.

The poll uses voter intentions, demographics, previous voting behaviour and constituency information.

According to the survey, the SNP would drop to 56 seats – down from 64 at the last election.

Reform would move into second place on 22 seats, while Labour would fall to 17 MSPs and continue in third.

But Nigel Farage’s party is the winner on the regional list, with at least two MSPs in every area and up to four in West Scotland.

The Tories would drop to 12 seats, compared with 31 in 2021.

The Liberal Democrats would jump to 14 MSPs – eight of which would be in constituencies.

Alex Cole-Hamilton’s party is projected to take the two most northern mainland seats in Caithness, Sutherland and Ross and Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch – which was held by deputy first minister Kate Forbes until she quit frontline politics at this election.

Reform UK, according to the poll, could win two constituencies – taking Ayr and Banffshire and Buchan Coast from the SNP.

The Scottish Greens – who are projected to take eight seats – would claim their first constituencies in Glasgow Kelvin and Maryhill, Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith.

In recent years, the SNP has been able to rely on the Scottish Greens at major votes to pass legislation, but if the poll is accurate, then Mr Swinney will have to seek partners elsewhere, including in the vote to become first minister in the first place.

The post is filled by a vote of MSPs and has been seen as a formality in the past 15 years, but a 65-strong unionist bloc in Holyrood could deprive the SNP of the keys to Bute House and insert their own candidate.

But with Reform in second place, the party’s leader in Scotland Malcolm Offord could make a case to become first minister.

Such a move would require the votes of every MSP in the anti-independence parties, which is unlikely.

More in Common found that 39 of the 73 constituency seats in Scotland are considered marginal – within five percentage points – meaning results are “all to play for”, the pollster’s UK director Luke Tryl said.

“Having been in power for almost two decades, the SNP are clearly suffering from the curse of incumbency that has afflicted governments around the world,” he said.

“Although they look set to maintain power in Holyrood it will almost certainly be with significantly diminished vote share and this model estimates a lower seat count too.

“The SNP benefit however from a further fragmentation of the unionist vote with Reform UK emerging as the strongest unionist party and official opposition as Farage finally breaks through north of the border.

“That said, the biggest takeaway from this model is the sheer uncertainty that six-party politics creates.

“Close to half of the constituency seats are estimated to be decided on a margin of less than five points, meaning that there really is all to play for in the closing weeks of this campaign.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said “After 20 years of SNP government, Scotland needs change and May 7 is our chance to deliver it.

“Our NHS is stuck in constant crisis, standards are slipping in our schools, and crime is on the rise.

“We can’t risk more of the same SNP failure. Scottish Labour is the only party that can replace them in government and Anas Sarwar is the only person who can replace John Swinney as First Minister.”

Liberal Democrats campaign chairwoman Wendy Chamberlain said: “This poll shows that momentum is behind the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

“We have run a relentlessly positive campaign focused on access to healthcare and tackling the cost of living and that is paying off.”

Greens co-leader Gillian Mackay MSP said: “It’s increasingly clear that Greens are going to be in a unique position to deliver progressive policies that lower our bills and protect our environment after this election.

“We showed what was possible over the last five years as we delivered free bus travel for young people, ended peak rail fares, and provided free school meals for thousands of children across Scotland.”

A Scottish Conservative spokesman said: “This poll makes it clear that a vote for Reform will only help the SNP remain in power for another five years.

“John Swinney is desperate to talk up Reform because they get him closer to the majority he craves and will use to demand another divisive independence referendum.

“We cannot let that happen. As postal votes continue to land across Scotland, voters must back the Scottish Conservatives on their peach ballot paper.”

SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said: “This is another encouraging poll showing the SNP with a commanding lead – but there is no room for complacency and we will be working hard for every vote.

“Today’s poll shows that a historic SNP majority is all to play for – which would secure a fresh start with independence and lock Nigel Farage out of power in Scotland.”