War in Ukraine will take global economic toll, OECD warns

Russia’s war in Ukraine will disrupt commerce and clog up supply chains, slashing economic growth and pushing prices sharply higher around the globe, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned.

In a grim new assessment, the 38-country OECD said that over the next year, the conflict would reduce gross domestic product (GDP) – the broadest measure of economic output – by 1.08% worldwide, by 1.4% in the 19 European countries that share the euro currency and by 0.88% in the United States.

But government spending and tax cuts could partially limit the damage, the organisation said.

The Russian invasion came at a time when prices were already surging and supply chains were snarled, fallout from an unexpectedly strong recovery from the coronavirus recession.

The OECD, which in December forecast global inflation of 4.2% this year, predicted that the conflict would drive up prices by 2.47 percentage points worldwide over the next year.

Russia and Ukraine account for less than 2% of global GDP but are heavyweight producers of specific commodities.

Together, for instance, they export a third of the world’s wheat, raising concerns that countries such as Egypt and Lebanon that rely on those affordable wheat exports for bread and other food staples could face shortages in the months ahead.

Russia is also a big producer of potash that is used in fertiliser, palladium that is critical for cars, mobile phones and dental fillings and nickel used in electric car batteries and steel.

Prices of those commodities have surged since January.

Hit by sanctions, Russia and its economy have absorbed a huge blow.

The rouble has plummeted in value, and Russian oil is selling at a big discount on world markets.