Garbhan Downey's Election Diary 2017: The problem with loyalty

Mark ‘Chappers’ Chapman is my favourite football presenter on BBC1. He is the anti-Savage; intelligent, upbeat, witty and has the ability to ask insightful questions without being abusive or coming off like he’s pushing an agenda. And he does it all without any of that face-smackable smugness that is so prevalent among his colleagues.

Last week in his live TV show, Chappers mischievously asked former Arsenal legend Ian Wright and Danny Murphy who once lined out for Tottenham Hotspur, which side they would sign for today.

Murphy, who quickly realised what side of the kicking he was going to be on, laughed loudly and told Chappers ‘Spurs’ of course.

Then it was his fellow panelist’s turn. And for the first time ever, Wrighty, who is widely known as a mouth up the back, was dumbstruck. His bogey team, Spurs, are on their best run in fifty years, while his darling Gunners are sinking faster than the sterling exchange rate.

It was enjoyable to watch the normally cocksure, ex-England striker shift and squirm in his seat. But then Wrighty did something remarkable. He admitted publicly that until Arsenal had sorted out their ‘problems upstairs’, it would be foolish not to sign for his oldest and most bitter enemies.

It was honest, it was unequivocal and it was absolutely unexpected. I have been dismissing Wrighty as a pundit for years now, but it was the single smartest thing I have ever heard him say.

It is a tough thing indeed to change the team you support. Very few I’ve met have ever done it. I personally know more people who have changed their spouses or their religion.

Your team is mark of who you are, an immutable part of your identity. It usually derives from a decision made in childhood; one that you will forever stick with, through thick and thin, out of loyalty and faith. But this life-defining decision is more often than not based on little but the preferences, and prejudices, of the people around you. And it is sometimes, deep down, quite wrong for you – and, as we’re all aware, it can be financially disastrous to boot.

The danger of diehards

I accept that it is totally inappropriate to compare the fripperies of supporting a soccer team to modern-day Irish politics. It is simplistic and, regardless of what Shankly might say, football is not a matter of life and death.

But the analogy I’m making is this: we are all creatures of rigid, and sometimes self-destructive habits; habits which go against all sane judgement and are nigh impossible to shift.

And if it’s so difficult for a person to swap allegiances from one sporting club to another, how do you best go about convincing someone, or a group, to revisit - and change - their fixed political mindset?

Particularly when it is in their complete best interests? After they have gotten themselves so far dug into the hole, there is no hope of them getting out by themselves?

The British Tories are a case in point. There is just no talking to them.

All 27 other EU states lined up with one voice last weekend to tell them that they cannot have their cake and eat their gateau.

There will be no possibility of new trade agreements between Britain and Europe until they pay their due debts, promise to respect EU citizenship, and resolve the issue of Ireland to everyone’s satisfaction – including Ireland’s.

The Tories, however, to quote the European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker, are now living in another galaxy and don’t believe they have to listen to, negotiate with, or in anyway take account of their former partners.

They are Millwall, they are Millwall, no-one likes them, they don’t care. And so, ultimately, they will be a lost cause. As things stand, they are going to drop rapidly down through the divisions and might never again be real competitors on the European or World stages.

Bit players

Unionists in the North, of course, are already playing lower-league football. But over the last few months they’ve woken up to the fact that their lucrative sponsorship deal is about to be cancelled, while their back office is being investigated for corruption.

And as soon as Westminster pulls the plug on the agricultural sector here, which will happen the day and hour that Brexit is completed, the administrators will be called in.

The DUP and UUP won’t even get a run out for the Tory Reserves any more – particularly as there isn’t enough money to support the senior squad. And Theresa May is going to have more than enough players of her own by the look of things.

Unionism is in real trouble, but it is also in denial. Its teams are heading directly for the amateur leagues but are kidding themselves that they are still in the Premiership. And unlike Wrighty they are still unwilling to acknowledge any ‘problems upstairs’.

Union, unity or oblivion?

The bonus - or indeed saving grace - for the North at last weekend’s European summit, was the minuted guarantee that we will get full automatic reintegration into the EU in the eventuality of Irish unity.

It may take a little time for unionists to recognise this for the crucial lifeline that it is – and also that they have no other. Eventually, though, they will have to cut their losses and put new pragmatism ahead of old partisanship.

But the DUP and UUP can’t afford either to wait until the Tories starve them (and the rest of us) into oblivion, before grasping the hand that wants to feed them.

Impetus not impasse

Assuring unionism that it still can have relevance in Ireland, Britain and Europe will require forward thinking from all sides. But crucially, it will require direct moderation, and mediation, from the EU. This process will need impetus and momentum, if we are not to suffer generational economic loss.

Unionists don’t have to switch teams – just leagues, and they’ll actually be bigger players in a stronger division. Ultimately, a newly constituted island arrangement, which still lets them retain allegiances, will allow us all to prosper and compete in Europe again, which is where the real money lies.

But first they have to convince their supporters that it’s okay and that their loyalties have not been compromised. The home team will still always come first, wherever it plays. And to ensure that, their fellow Irish clubs will have to promise to play fair and guarantee them a soft landing.

Tried and trusted tactics

That’s not to say unionists aren’t going to play out the current season. And they are determined to claw back some of the points they shipped recently by resorting to their familiar old tack of playing the man rather than the ball.

Over the past few weeks, unionist strategists have clearly been sitting down with sympathisers in the Belfast media in an attempt to reset the news agenda in the run-up to the June 8 election.

It is no coincidence that a slew of anti-republican stories, all of them pertaining to events that took place (in a very different era) 30 years ago, are starting to dominate the headlines.

The purveyors of these stories are hoping to distract the public from the governmental disasters they themselves are responsible for – Brexit, RHI and renewed sectarian inequality – by raking through the ashes of ancient history.

It is scaremongering and it is rabble-rousing. And it has all the moral integrity of handing a starving child a pre-chewed teething-ring.

But, as we know too well, it might just work – at least in the short term.

In the end, however, even diehard unionist supporters are going to wake up to the fact that they have yet again been left sucking plastic - and start wondering if it’s time they started exploring other options.