WILLIAMS ON BUSINESS: Brexsick, Business Food Poisoning

With no-one in the business world any clearer on what Brexit will entail, RYAN WILLIAMS advises preparing for the worst and hoping for the best

I am no fan of our politics in NI and usually vote on either talent or policy, or occasionally, when the planets align a combination of both. I think anyone going into politics anywhere in the UK or Ireland deserves credit – I wouldn’t do it. By its very nature you will spend your life in adversarial situations, be relentlessly pursued for good reasons and bad and you will never emerge with a clear ‘black and white’ victory.

History and journalism like to paint heroes and villains, winners and losers but generally the real situation is one of grey, of compromise, of half results and disappointment.

About a year ago I wrote an article entitled ‘Brexsick’ – 12 months ago I already had my fill of the topic. To be honest though, it's just like a really strong dose of food poisoning…. the stomach cramps, dehydration and vomiting... and if you keep eating, the symptoms will only get worse.

The only solution 12 months ago was to insulate against the risk and control those things within our grasp. I used our dual nationality and all-island customer base to set up an entirely separate legal entity in the South for no less than three of our businesses. This is what business does – plans for the worst and hopes for the best. Everything else is just a spectator sport – particularly in NI.

Over 100,000 businesses from the UK have adopted the same approach. How that registration progress into a movement of wealth and jobs remains to be seen – but the nuclear button is ready.

There is no doubt that the DUP with their 10-person UK veto have delivered the biggest economic blow NI has ever received. The strategic differentiation of access to the Customs Union and unfettered access to the UK was a game changer for this little area of the globe.

Free movement of labour would have made the proposition even more interesting, while the FDI potential alone in terms of banking and finance from London HQ’s would have been immeasurable. Trading in sterling, in English - with access to skilled international talent – meant we would have transformed the economy on this part of the island forever.

Export and logistic conduits, new research and development operations requiring EU regulation and compliance standards, agriculture and food export, all would have been a revelation to the economy here.

We were going to be niche, an edge that could not be copied – we were going to be competitive. NI has not been competitive for almost a century.

Bunker mentality

There are many in NI who won’t care too much about the economic proposition outlined above. The perception that the constitutional DNA is being ‘tinkered with’ will be enough to ensure a bunker mentality and a retreat to the bunting clad trenches.

However, it would appear that the DUP in the modern day version of ‘Never’ have actually managed to potentially force the UK Government to ensure the Customs Union will remain intact in all but name post-April 2019 for the whole of the UK.

That is a quite an achievement – 10 MP’s with no presence in England have called the PM to heel and subsequently have managed to propose a total UK regulatory alignment with the EU post Brexit. That’s not impressive – it’s bloody incredible.

Arlene Foster at the pinnacle of her power last week refused to meet the British PM – that’s a new version of unionism I haven’t come across before. Better still, she stated that the DUP really should be on the negotiation team – that would make for some interesting conversations in Brussels.

Bright people

I know several members of the DUP fairly well – I know that many solid, bright members of the party voted to stay within Europe, but the ability to voice this support was bottled by a party who usually manage their affairs very tightly behind closed doors. The lid was firmly screwed down in an effort to ensure any perception of an all-island economy could be realised. The market of the UK is paramount to Northern Ireland. The free movement of people and trade across the border is vital. In our own business, we have already began to work out how we can disguise Java Developers in Derry as boxes of Doherty’s Sausages for export across the border!

What is clear that even in the worst case scenario business will take the path of least resistance – on one extreme we will become a smuggler's paradise and in the other the Monaco of Northern Europe. I know which one I would prefer.