How important is a Russian retreat from Kherson?

Ukrainian officials said Ukrainian flags are appearing “en masse and all over the place” in the wake of Russia’s retreat from the southern region of Kherson, one of the four regions in Ukraine Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed in September.

The months-long Ukrainian offensive to recapture the city of Kherson, the only provincial capital that has been under Russian control since the early days of the invasion, is coming to a head.

Here is a look at what is happening and why Kherson is such an important city for both sides.

– Why is the city such a prize?

Kherson, which had a prewar population of 280,000, is the only regional capital to be captured by Russian forces.

The city and surrounding areas fell into Moscow’s hands in the opening days of the war as Russian troops quickly pushed their attack north from the Crimean Peninsula — the region illegally annexed by the Kremlin in 2014.

Ukrainian resistance fighters have challenged Russian troops for control of the city since, with acts of sabotage and assassinations of Moscow-appointed officials.

Kherson also sits at a point where Ukraine can cut off fresh water from the Dnieper to Crimea. Kyiv blocked those vital supplies after the Crimean Peninsula’s annexation, with Russian President Vladimir Putin citing the need to restore them as one reason behind his decision to invade Ukraine.

– What is happening now?

In the last 24 hours, Ukrainian troops have made gains north west, west and north east of the city of Kherson, advancing up to four miles in some areas, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

“Russians have moved to positions they hope will be easier to defend. Ukraine will have to decide whether, when, and how to keep pushing,” said Olga Oliker, director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group.

– What have the Ukrainian troops found?

As Russia pulled its troops from the western bank of the river dividing the region, they left wreckage in their wake, destroying key infrastructure, including power facilities and bridges, Kherson’s Ukrainian-appointed regional official Serhii Khlan said.

”It will all have to be reconstructed,” he said on Friday at a video briefing. “While fleeing, they were blowing up everything, everything that could deter the (Ukrainian) advance.”

Mr Khlan advised civilians to stay home and said the humanitarian situation was really complicated, with power supplies cut off and very limited communications.

– What does the Kremlin say?

The Kremlin remained defiant on Friday, insisting battlefield developments in the Kherson region in no way represented an embarrassment for Mr Putin.

– What would losing Kherson mean for Russia?

A retreat from Kherson and other areas on the Dnieper’s west bank would shatter Russian hopes to press an offensive west to Mykolaiv and Odesa to cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Moscow had also hoped to build a land corridor to the separatist Transnistria region of Moldova, home to a major Russian military base.

“The loss of Kherson will turn all those southern dreams by the Kremlin into dust,” said Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov.

“Kherson is a key to the entire southern region, which would allow Ukraine to target key supply routes for the Russian forces. Russians will try to retain control of it using all means.”

– What would recapturing Kherson mean for Ukraine?

Reclaiming control of Kherson would also mean that Kyiv could again cut off water to Crimea.

“After the deoccupation of Kherson, the Russians will again have problems with fresh water in Crimea,” Mr Zhdanov added.

– What will China think?

Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Kyiv-based Penta Centre independent think tank, said controlling the Kherson region and other southern areas was a major prize for Russia and their loss would have painful consequences for Mr Putin at home and abroad.

He also said China and India will see the fall of Kherson as a sign of Kremlin weakness.

“Putin will face reputational losses not only inside the country, but also in the eyes of China, and that could be particularly dangerous for the Kremlin,” Mr Fesenko added.