TMS stats man says which Ashes team of the past England should look to for hope

An Ashes series full of unpredictability, exciting cricket and “cataclysmic collapses” awaits, according to BBC statistician Andy Zaltzman.

England go in search of their first win Down Under since the 2010-11 series, having drawn the last two home series.

Test Match Special contributor Zaltzman told the PA news agency: “It’s quite hard to predict. I veer between quite confident optimism and the innate pessimism of someone who grew up watching English cricket.

“What no one in this squad has ever done is win a Test in Australia. Between them they’ve had zero wins and 28 match losses – and that sounds ominous!

“But the Andrew Strauss team in 2010-11 had an almost identical record and they had a superb 3-1 victory. I don’t really believe in statistical precedent meaning a great deal but it’s nice to cling to these things.

“I think everyone’s just thirsting for a competitive series where we don’t know that Australia are keeping the Ashes with two entire Test matches to go.”

England’s attacking approach made for a thrilling 2023 series and Zaltzman said: “England’s batters can transform games quickly but they are more vulnerable, I think, to cataclysmic collapses.

“In 2023 they attacked the Australian bowlers in a way no other team has. Pat Cummins had one of his worst ever series, in terms of average (37.72) and particularly his economy rate (4.27), and Josh Hazlewood went for (4.56) an over having gone (16) series without going for over three. And they hit Scott Boland out of the series.”

Only five of the touring squad have previously played in an away Ashes and Zaltzman said: “Ben Stokes is the only one who’s scored a Test century in Australia. There’s a lot made of the fact Joe Root’s not made a hundred, but he’s had a lot of fifties and not many failures.

“Harry Brook’s numbers are incredible but it will be a really interesting challenge having never played Test cricket in Australia before, and not had a great deal of success in white-ball cricket there (averaging 9.85 in T20 internationals and 6.29 in the Big Bash).”

Stokes followed 17 wickets at 25.23 against India this summer with six for 52 in last week’s warm-up against England Lions.

His Test average of 40.94 Down Under is less impressive but Zaltzman said: “I don’t think that 19 wickets at 40-odd is necessarily that relevant.

“He came in during 2013-14 and got a six-wicket haul in a team that was being absolutely annihilated, and four years ago he was coming back from injury.

“If Stokes is fit to bowl in all five Tests, that raises England’s chances significantly.”

He added: “I think Josh Tongue might have an unexpectedly big impact.

“He had a good summer, picked up (19) wickets in three Tests, bowls pretty fast, good bounce, awkward angles.

“(Mark) Wood bowled very well in Australia four years ago – didn’t get a lot of wickets until the last Test when he got six for 37, but his speed and endurance were astonishing.

“(Jofra) Archer had his debut series against Australia in England in 2019, 22 wickets at (20.27), so they’ve both had success against Australia.”

The first Australian wicket of the series has fallen for 10 or less in the last four Ashes, a “potential weakness” Zaltzman expects England to target.

In the middle order, though, he said: “(Steve) Smith had a bit of a dip but his recent form has been really good, four hundreds in eight Tests.

“He’s still the most important player, certainly with the bat, in the Australian team.”