I will confront Reform not cosy up to them, says Swinney following poll

John Swinney has said he will confront rather than “cosy up to Reform” after a poll suggested there would be a “substantial hurdle” to forming a government following the 2026 election.

Analysis of the poll put the SNP on 53 seats, Labour on 25 and the Conservatives and Reform UK joint third on 15 seats each.

Nigel Farage’s party do not currently have any MSPs.

The Survation poll for the Holyrood Sources podcast and True North Advisors also had the Liberal Democrats on 12, and the Scottish Greens on 10.

The 2021 election saw the SNP win 64 seats, Conservatives 31, Labour 22, Scottish Greens eight and the Liberal Democrats four.

The First Minister was asked about the results as he spoke to journalists following a poverty summit in Stirling.

He said: “What’s very noteworthy about the poll is the strength of the SNP position given the challenges and difficulties that we have faced, particularly in the general election back in July.

“I think what that indicates and perhaps confirms is my view that the SNP is recovering from its difficulties but has not yet fully recovered.”

He said he did not agree with Reform UK’s outlook on immigrants, saying he welcomed migrants who come to contribute to Scotland.

Mr Swinney said: “That has always been my view, it will always be my view.

“It will not be the view taken by those who advocate for reform nor those prepared to cosy up to Reform.

“And I will not cosy up to Reform, I will confront Reform.”

For Holyrood Sources podcast host, and former Scottish Conservative director of communications, Andy Maciver, the poll confirmed a number of “emerging trends”.

He said: “The first is that Labour is now realising, as the Tories have experienced for so many years, that when your Westminster party sneezes, you catch a cold.

“The second is that, even without a leader in Scotland, Reform UK is attracting the votes of people, particularly on the unionist right, who clearly feel the mainstream has failed them.

“The third is that if Reform UK’s vote sticks, then, for the first time, we may be in a situation where finding two parties who can together command a Holyrood majority could be a substantial hurdle.”

Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University said the results indicate Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s popularity is not enough to offset voters’ “disappointment” with the performance of the UK Labour Government at Westminster.

“His once seemingly bright prospects of becoming Scotland’s next first minister have diminished markedly since July,” Sir John said.

“Nevertheless, the SNP are currently still heading for significant losses in next year’s Holyrood election, and could well find it difficult to form a stable administration.”

He added that while voters “have their doubts” about the SNP’s record in office since 2021 – particularly on health – they are “even more doubtful” about Labour’s performance at Westminster.

The poll also showed Mr Swinney is the most popular choice to be the next first minister, with 25% of respondents saying they feel the SNP leader will be the best in the role, ahead of Mr Sarwar on 16%.

Thirty-eight per cent said they do not know who would make the best first minister.

Sir John also pointed to the two leaders’ differing fortunes among people who voted for their respective parties in 2021.

The poll suggests fewer than two in five of those who voted Labour in 2021 “positively approve” of Mr Sarwar’s performance as party leader.

In contrast, it indicates two-thirds of those who voted SNP in 2021 approve of Mr Swinney’s performance – even though the party remains “well short” of the popularity it enjoyed in the last Holyrood election.

Fieldwork for the Survation poll was carried out by online interviews between January 7 and 13, using a sample of 1,024 Scottish residents aged 16 and above.

Reacting to the poll, Scottish Secretary Ian Murray said it is “indicative of how difficult the circumstances are”.

Speaking to journalists at the Scottish Parliament on Wednesday morning, he said: “We’ve had to make some pretty difficult decisions that are unpopular.

“No government wants to make unpopular and difficult decisions but we were forced into that, both with the inheritance that we knew about and the inheritance we didn’t know about.

“We were honest with the public back in July that it would be tough but maybe the public don’t like honesty after all.”