Swinney ‘should have been clearer’ in attainment gap claim, says stats watchdog

John Swinney “should have been clearer” when he made claims about closing the poverty-related attainment gap, the UK’s statistics watchdog has said.

The chairman of the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) has contacted Mr Swinney following his claim in a First Minister’s Questions session in February.

Mr Swinney had stated “the overall poverty-related attainment gap (in Scotland) has reduced by 60% since 2009-10”.

UKSA chairman Sir Robert Chote said the attainment gap is monitored through 13 measures under the National Improvement Framework (NIF) for education.

However the 60% figure does not come from one of these 13 measures but instead relates to statistics on follow-up leaver destinations.

Sir Robert says this measures outcomes when pupils have left school, not their attainment while in school.

He said: “When making claims about a reduction in the ‘overall’ attainment gap, we would expect the Government to use the NIF to help evidence this, and that this assertion would reflect a reduction in more than one measure relating to attainment.

“The First Minister should have been clearer that he was referring to a specific set of statistics to evidence his claim, particularly as it was based on data which is not part of the NIF.

“To maintain trust and confidence in their statements, ministers should take care that when they claim progress of their policies, it is by their own defined measures, or otherwise clearly explain the source of separate data so that it is readily accessible for policy experts and the public to understand.

“We have raised these matters with the First Minister’s office.”

The UKSA had been alerted to Mr Swinney’s statement by Labour’s education spokeswoman Pam Duncan-Glancy.

She said: “Once again the stats authority has been forced to step in over the SNP’s use of dodgy data.

“This letter demolishes John Swinney’s claims and exposes the truth – he failed in his task to close Scotland’s attainment gap.

“A generation of Scottish children have been let down by the SNP, but John Swinney is working harder to hide the problem than to fix it.

“It’s time for a new direction and an end to SNP incompetence and spin.”

When Ms Duncan-Glancy raised the letter at First Minister’s Questions on Thursday, Mr Swinney said he “acknowledged” its contents.

He said: “I’ve used one particular measure of the attainment gap, I could use others.

“The poverty-related attainment gap between young people from the most and least deprived areas, meeting standards in literacy, is a record low in primary schools.

“The attainment gap has reached record lows between secondary pupils achieving third level in both literacy and numeracy.”

He said he accepts an attainment gap remains, but money from the Scottish attainment challenge fund is improving outcomes.