Poll suggests SNP could win 62 Holyrood seats with Reform in second

The SNP could win 62 seats in May’s Scottish Parliament election, with Reform UK narrowly in second place over Labour, a new poll has suggested.

The survey of 1,068 people carried out by Survation for the Diffley Partnership between March 16 and 23 put the SNP ahead with 35% of the Holyrood constituency vote and 32% of the regional list, leaving the party just three seats short of the majority.

Reform UK would receive 19% of the constituency vote and 18% of the list, projecting a 19-seat return.

Labour followed closely behind in the survey, with 19% of respondents backing the party in constituencies and 17% in regional votes, equalling 18 Holyrood seats.

The survey put the Tories on 13 seats, with 11% of the constituency vote and 13% of the list vote, with the Scottish Greens on 10 seats and the Lib Dems on seven.

John Swinney continues to be the most popular political leader in Scotland, with a net favourability rating of minus 10%, compared with minus 47% for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and minus 25% for Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has a minus 31% rating in Scotland, compared with minus 15% for his Scottish leader Lord Malcolm Offord, although 55% of respondents said they had no opinion of Lord Offord.

The survey found that since February, the number of people who answered “don’t know” when asked about political leaders has dwindled, which Diffley Partnership founder Mark Diffley said indicates an increased interest in the election.

“As the campaign now gets properly under way, this poll suggests that the SNP remain in a strong position, set to return as the largest party in May, but still falling short of a majority,” he said.

“Support for the other parties is broadly dispersed, which means relatively small movements during the campaign could have a meaningful impact on the final seat picture.

“Beyond the headline voting numbers, the survey also shows voters beginning to pay closer attention to the people who want to lead Scotland.

“Since February, we’ve seen a clear drop in the proportion of voters who say they ‘don’t know’ their view of each party leader, indicating that engagement is increasing as the election draws nearer.

“At the same time, favourability has softened for almost every leader. This suggests that as voters tune in to the campaign, they are assessing leaders more critically.

“Taken together, the findings point to a campaign that is now in motion, with voters paying closer attention but also becoming more demanding of those seeking office.

“With several weeks still to go, there remains scope for both voting intention and leader perceptions to shift further.”

SNP campaign director Angus Robertson said the poll showed a Holyrood majority was “within touching distance”.

“This is yet another poll that shows Scottish voters are backing John Swinney’s strong leadership with a majority within touching distance,” he said.

“Not only does an SNP majority unlock independence, it locks Nigel Farage out of power – be in no doubt, without an SNP majority there is always the potential for a grubby, backroom deal between the Labour Party and Reform.

“There is no room for complacency but by delivering on the priorities of the people of Scotland, a fresh start with independence is there to be won and every single vote counts.”

A Scottish Tory spokesman agreed that the chance of an SNP majority was “very real”, urging voters to back the party to stop it.

He said: “He will use that majority to push for another divisive independence referendum at the expense of every other issue that matters to Scots.

“The Scottish Conservatives are fighting to stop an SNP majority and John Swinney’s referendum plan.”