UN warns of extreme heat risks as 'super El Nino' could be on the way
Experts say they’re 80% certain that above average temperatures will be recorded across the globe from June to August
Scientists are closely monitoring conditions in the Pacific Ocean amid growing indications that a powerful ‘El Niño’ weather event could develop in the coming months, potentially influencing weather patterns in Ireland and across the globe.
The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a strong El Niño could contribute to rising global temperatures and increase the likelihood of extreme weather events in various regions of the world.
While Ireland is located thousands of kilometres from where the phenomenon develops, meteorologists say a significant El Niño event can still have an indirect impact on weather patterns.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops when sea temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than average.
The event occurs when trade winds that normally push warm ocean water westwards weaken, allowing warmer water to spread across a large area of the Pacific.
This change can alter atmospheric circulation around the globe, affecting rainfall, temperatures and storm patterns in countries far removed from the Pacific region.
El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and can last for several months or even longer.
What is a ‘super El Niño’?
A ‘super el Niño’ is an informal term used to describe exceptionally strong El Niño events.
Previous super El Niño events, including those in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, were associated with major weather disruptions around the world and contributed to some of the warmest years ever recorded globally.
Climate forecasters are now watching developments closely as some models suggest the next El Niño could become particularly strong, although experts stress it is still too early to know exactly how powerful the event may become.
The WMO has said their forecasting models are 80% certain that above-average temperatures will be recorded across the globe from June to August adding that there is a 90% chance that the event will continue and intensify up until November and possibly beyond.
According to the UN agency, El Niño’s warming effect comes on top of the long-term warming trend driven by climate change, potentially pushing global temperatures to new highs.
The organisation has urged governments and communities worldwide to prepare for the possibility of weather-related impacts, noting that strong El Niño events have historically been linked to droughts, floods, heatwaves and severe storms in different parts of the world.
Could Ireland be affected?
Experts stress that El Niño does not directly determine Ireland’s weather.
Ireland’s climate is influenced primarily by the Atlantic Ocean and the position of the jet stream, meaning local weather can remain highly changeable regardless of events in the Pacific.
However, a strong El Niño can influence broader atmospheric patterns and may increase the likelihood of unusual weather conditions developing across parts of Europe.
For now, experts say the phenomenon is unlikely to dramatically change Ireland’s weather on its own, but it remains an important indicator of broader changes occurring within the Earth’s climate system.