Scottish prison population could rise to almost 9,500 by summer, estimates show
The projections suggest the population could rise to 9,450 by June.
Scotland’s prison population could rise to 9,500 by next summer, according to the Government’s own estimates.
A quarterly projection released on Thursday showed the prison population, which is already over capacity for the country’s jails, is “likely” to increase between this month and June of next year.
At the beginning of this month, the number of prisoners stood at 8,517, but projections suggest that figure could be between 8,350 and 9,450.
The current design capacity of the prison estate is 7,805.
A similar projection in July put the higher range of the population at 9,150 by March.
Reacting to the projections, Justice Secretary Neil Gray said: “Like many countries, Scotland has seen a sustained rise in its prison population, placing significant pressure across the prison estate.
“Prison staff continue to show exceptional professionalism, resilience and commitment in very challenging circumstances, and I am grateful for the vital work they do every day.
“To ease the pressure, we have maximised capacity across the prison estate by 640 over the past three years, we are building two new prisons and we are increasing investment in community justice.
“Further action is needed, which is why in June I set out proposals to achieve a sustainable prison population while maintaining public protection and reducing future offending.
“The planned reforms build on the recommendations of the independent Sentencing and Penal Policy Commission, which recognise that Scotland must rethink its approach to community sentencing and imprisonment.
“Alongside expansion of the prison estate, they will strike the right balance across custodial sentences, community sentencing and the need to robustly protect victims and the public.
“Responses to the consultation are being considered to inform next steps.”
A spokesman for the Scottish Prison Service said: “As we have previously made clear, the size and complexity of the prison population is unsustainable and poses a significant risk to the safety of both those living and working in our establishments.
“We need action now to tackle overcrowding, to help us keep people safe, support rehabilitation, reduce reoffending, and help build the safer Scotland we all want to see.”
Phil Fairlie, the assistant secretary of the Prison Officers Association (POA), said the projections will “come as no surprise” to the group’s members.
“From the outset, the POA said that the early release scheme would only provide temporary relief and that the spaces freed up would immediately be filled by newly convicted prisoners,” he said.
“That is exactly what has happened and now the Government is projecting that, in a year’s time, Scotland will have a prison population with almost 1,000 more prisoners than we have at present.
“This is unsustainable and is heaping unbearable pressure on our members.”