What happens now the Privileges Committee’s report on Johnson has been released?

The Privileges Committee has branded Boris Johnson the first prime minister to have lied to the Commons.

Here is a look at some of the questions that remain as the saga continues and the potential implications for those involved.

– What happens next?

As expected, the Privileges Committee has found Boris Johnson misled Parliament over lockdown parties at No 10, with the cross-party panel saying it would have recommended a 90-day suspension from the House of Commons if he had not resigned.

If Mr Johnson had remained in Parliament, the recommended sanctions would have had to be approved by a vote of MPs.

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt has confirmed MPs are scheduled to debate the Privileges Committee’s findings on Monday June 19 – the same date as Mr Johnson’s 59th birthday – and this will be followed by an expected free vote, which means members are free to choose not to vote along party lines.

There could also be further ramifications from the committee’s conclusion that Mr Johnson’s attacks on the fairness of the committee’s procedures amounted to a “serious further contempt”.

The report said his criticisms, which were echoed in part by some Tory MPs, were “vitriolic” and amounted to an “attack on our democratic institutions”.

– How does the recommended sanction compare with those previously handed to other MPs?

The most recent comparable example is that of SNP MP Margaret Ferrier, who MPs recently voted to suspend from the Commons for 30 days for breaching Covid lockdown rules.

To find an MP who was suspended for longer you have to go back to May 2021 when Rob Roberts – an independent initially elected as a Conservative – received a six-week ban for sexual misconduct.

Former Labour MP Keith Vaz was handed a six-month suspension in 2019, the longest in modern times, after he was found to have expressed a willingness to buy cocaine for others during an encounter with male prostitutes.

Other MPs receiving long suspensions include Democratic Union Party MP Ian Paisley Jr, who was suspended for 30 days in 2018 for failing to declare holidays paid for by the Sri Lankan government.

Teresa Gorman, then a Conservative MP, was suspended for four weeks in March 2000 for not declaring interests.

– Which former MPs have had their pass granting access to Parliament removed?

The Privileges Committee has recommended that Boris Johnson should not retain a pass granting him access to Parliament.

In normal circumstances, the pass is given to former MPs but there have been examples in recent times when findings of misconduct have led to the privilege being removed.

He was banned from holding a pass after an investigation found him guilty of bullying in 2022.

Ex-Labour MP Chris Williamson had his pass suspended last year after concerns were raised over his work for Press TV in Iran.

– What does the committee’s findings mean for Boris Johnson’s political future?

It would usually be reasonable to assume that any politician criticised in such damning terms would be forced to retreat from frontline politics for good.

But Mr Johnson’s abrasive push-back against the committee shows he is determined to remain a prominent figure.

He retains significant influence over the Conservative Party, particularly among the grassroots, and his allies in Parliament may follow him in trying to undermine the committee and its findings.

But the brutality of the committee’s condemnation raises questions over whether former parliamentary allies will, or indeed can afford to, stick with him.

There has been talk of Mr Johnson making a swift return but currently there appears little appetite among the Tory ranks for this to happen.

But the often cited warning not to write Mr Johnson off will be repeated, with some supporters no doubt hoping he will be viewed as a martyr to be rallied behind.

– When will the by-election in Mr Johnson’s vacated seat take place?

The Government on Wednesday formally confirmed a by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

It will take place between 21 and 27 days from the writ being issued by Chief Whip Simon Hart, meaning it will be held between July 13 and 21.

Mr Johnson won the seat in 2019 with 52.6% of the vote, beating Labour candidate Ali Milani by 7,000 votes.

A by-election in Selby and Ainsty was also confirmed yesterday after the resignation of Boris Johnson ally Nigel Adams, meaning the Government looks set to face two by-elections on the same day.

– What factors could influence the outcome?

The circumstances in which the seat became vacant has led many to conclude the Conservatives are likely to lose the by-election.

Realistically, polling on the Government’s popularity pointed to the Tories being at serious risk of losing the seat anyway.

But controversy over the mayor of London Sadiq Khan’s push to extend the capital’s ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to outer London areas including Hillingdon, which covers the vacant seat, could play a part.

The Conservative campaign in the constituency is expected to frame the by-election as a referendum on Ulez, which has been met with strong local opposition.

Tory Party chairman Greg Hands has already campaigned in the area on the issue.

A Conservative candidate is yet to be announced but the Labour candidate, Camden councillor Danny Beales, has sought to play down Ulez as the dominant issue.

He said: “Local people don’t view this as a binary issue.

“The Conservatives may want to run a single-issue campaign here but I don’t think that will wash with voters.”

– What are the implications of the committee’s findings for Rishi Sunak?

The Prime Minister’s war of words with Mr Johnson over his honours list brought simmering tensions between two into full public view.

As things stand, Mr Sunak has seen Mr Johnson, the most disruptive influence in his party, leave Parliament under a dark cloud.

But there are significant problems ahead for a Prime Minister facing numerous policy challenges and the potential continuation of internal party strife.

With two by-elections confirmed and a third on the horizon, Mr Sunak faces a potentially damaging test of voter opinion.

Heavy defeats could ferment concerns among Tory MPs that Mr Sunak is not making required progress, particularly in the context of recent bad news on the economy.

While there may be some relief among ministers that Mr Johnson has departed the parliamentary fray, there will be lingering concerns that the Conservative brand has been irredeemably damaged by his conduct.

If this is the case, Mr Sunak now has limited time to make significant progress towards shaking off negative public perceptions.

– When will the third by-election take place?

The resignation announcement by staunch Boris Johnson ally Nadine Dorries was expected to enable the Conservatives to attempt to limit potential political damage by dealing with three by-elections on one day.