Scotland’s GDP to grow more slowly than UK over 50 years, projections suggest

Scotland’s GDP is projected to grow more slowly than the UK over the next 50 years, according to the Scottish Fiscal Commission (SFC).

The independent body, which publishes economic and fiscal projections for Scotland’s economy to inform Government spending, projected growth of 0.9% per year on average between 2028-29 and 2071-72.

This is compared to growth of 1.4% for the UK as a whole.

GDP per person is also projected to grow at a slower rate than in the UK, with the commission predicting an annual average increase of 1.3% in Scotland compared to 1.4% in the UK.

The SFC will produce a full report next year on Scotland’s population over the next 50 years and its impact on the economy, but its first projections were released on Tuesday.

Population, the commission projected, could drop by as much as 900,000 people by 2072, some 16% of the current figure.

Along with a projected fall in population, the labour force could also see a drop by 2072, the report claimed.

The proportion of the population aged between 16 and 64 is projected to fall by eight percentage points by 2072, dropping to 56%, compared to a six percentage point drop in the UK.

The report also predicted that Scotland’s population would be on average 7.6 years older in 2072 than it is currently, compared to 6.1 years in the UK.

Professor Graeme Roy, the chair of the SFC, said: “While Scotland is no different from most high-income economies in facing demographic pressures, those facing Scotland are particularly acute.

“Our fiscal sustainability report next year will explore how these will affect the Scottish budget in the future.

“Politicians and those delivering public services will need to consider how to respond to these future fiscal pressures.”

SNP MSP Michelle Thomson said the projections show “the grim reality” of a future where Scotland remains part of the UK.

“This is not the future Scotland wants or deserves, and that is why people voted to have the choice of a future where we can build a better, more prosperous and independent country away from the failing Westminster system and impact of continued Brexit chaos,” she added.

Scottish Lib Dems communities spokesman Willie Rennie said the Scottish Government must “do better at making Scotland a more attractive place to live and work”.